Bakery Features

Will The Cupcake Craze Crumble?

Consumers still crave cupcakes but some signs are emerging that demand may be slackening. To keep sales strong, try exotic flavors and keep on eye on the competition.

KEY POINTS

Consumers are looking for increasingly exotic cupcakes.


Mini-cupcakes could be the next hot trend in the bakery.


Watch local stand-alone bakeries for new flavors to imitate.

January Issue-bakery_body

The last few years have been a whirlwind period for the cupcake.

Cupcakes were the top google search term in september 2008 and the inspiration for reality television shows “Cupcake Wars” and “DC cupcakes.” and with the rise of cupcake boutiques around the country and market leader crumbs bake shop going public in may, cupcakes have practically transformed from chic treat into industry cornerstone — and have become tasty business at grocery retailers’ bakery departments.

With demand now high, retailers can get a bigger slice of sales with the right recipe of fair prices, diversity of displays and variety of offerings, says Jonna Parker, director of account services at fresh food industry consultancy perishables group in Chicago.

According to perishables group data, U.S. cupcake sales at grocery stores have grown a staggering 74 percent from 2005 to 2010, garnering a projected $320 million in sales in 2010. The average number of unique cupcake item codes—each of which can be connected to a variety of styles and serving sizes—was 9.5 per store in 2010, up from 6.2 in 2006.

“that is a lot of item code shift in just four years,” parker says.

And retailers, by offering higher quality products, have raised the average cupcake package price from $3.99 in 2006 to $4.48 in 2010, she notes.

“Cupcakes were the hot thing because they’ve hit lots of boxes,” parker says. “They appealed to consumers who wanted three things: indulgence, variety and portion control.”

But there are crumbs of evidence that cupcakes won’t sell like hotcakes forever.

According to an October survey by seattle-based online culinary destination allrecipes.com, 37 percent of consumers claimed they were eating fewer cupcakes than last year. Cupcake sales grew 11 percent in 2010—down from a 14 percent increase the previous year, the perishables group reports.

“Double-digit growth is still growth,” Parker says. “But we can’t expect a doubling of numbers every year. You have to hit a max point.”

That’s why parker warns that retailers shouldn’t continue to raise prices “just because,” stressing that they should study cupcake prices at area bakeries to make sure their prices remain competitive.

She’s also concerned that many retailers keep cupcakes behind a service case, noting that while a retailer can better control presentation, products behind glass aren’t as accessible. She recommends for cupcakes to be in display areas where consumers can serve themselves.

And retailers need to keep innovating with a variety of flavors and package sizes.

Stephanie Robinett, director of communications at allrecipes, says the best rated cupcake recipe in early November was pumpkin ginger. Parker and Robinett also foresee mini cupcakes becoming bigger sales items. 

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